Crude oil prices behave just like any other commodity with wide price swings of shortage and oversupply. The crude oil price cycle can extend over a long period of time depending on the non-stop change in demand for oil as well as oil supply produced by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil supply companies. Oil price history shows that the petroleum industry especially in the United States has been heavily regulated in terms of production and price controls throughout the duration of the 20th century.
During the post World War II era, oil prices in the United States have averaged $23.57 per barrel, which is already adjusted for inflation to 2006 dollars. Without price controls, the U.S oil price would have been over $25.56. During the same post war period, the average price for domestic and adjusted world price of crude oil was $18.43 in 2006 prices. This exactly proves that only 50% of the time from 1947 to 2006 have oil prices exceeded the $18.43 per barrel mark. It was only then in March 28, 2000 when they accepted the $22-$28 price band for OPEC's supply of oil, did oil prices exceed the $23.00 per barrel in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With limited supply of crude oil, OPEC abandoned its price band and for almost 3 years, OPEC was in no position to stem a surge in oil prices which was similar to that of the late 1970's.
If we look at the statistics in a long term view, the oil price is practically much the same. Since 1869, US crude oil prices adjusted for inflation have averaged, $20.71 per barrel compared to other world prices of $21.57. Only 50% of the times were the US prices and world prices below the average oil price of $16.59 per barrel. If we would use the long term oil price history as a guide, those in the upstream segment of the crude oil industry should shape their business so that they would be able to operate with profit, below $16.59, 50% of the time.
Oil today represents 2% of global GDP, not the 8% represented in 1973. So what does oil price history teaches us? Greater oil prices give people an incentive to make more effective use of oil and for the global economy to move toward more services and information technology and off from manufacturing.
by Mayoor Patel
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Compare Bank CD Rates across the US
When you compare CD rates, bigger doesn't always mean bigger. Some of the largest banks in the US offer fairly low CD rates. Shouldn't they be able to afford to pay the higher CD rates? Probably, but why don't they. Simply, they don't need to.
Banks are in business to make money. They want to return as large as a profit as they can to their stockholders. You may actually be better off buying their stock then putting your hard-earned savings with them. But, I digress. The CD rates for large banks such as World Savings, Bank of America, Citibank, etc. are low because they have such a large base of low interest deposits such as savings accounts and checking accounts.
Banks' profits are derived primarily from two sources. First, is fee income (checking account, ATM, call center fees, etc.). The second source is the spread they make on the difference between the savings and CD rates they pay on deposits and the rates you pay for your loans through them. This isn't a perfect example, but if the average rate they pay for their combined deposits is 3.0% and the average loan rate is 6.0%, they are making a 300 Basis Point spread. On hundreds of millions in loans, that is a lot of clams.
If you compare CD rates across the country, the best rates are around 5.40% for 1Y. If the big banks had to pay that for all of their deposits, they would only be making 60 Basis Points. They just can't survive on that kind of a rate margin (or so they tell us).
So compare the CD rates that World Savings, Bank of America, and Citibank are offering with other banks across the country. Our site makes this easy. Please visit our Compare CD Rates page.
Also, don't forget to compare credit union CD rates. They often have higher CD rates then banks. The reasons though for that will be in a forth-coming article. Please view our Certificate of Deposit rates Page.
by Chris Duncan
Banks are in business to make money. They want to return as large as a profit as they can to their stockholders. You may actually be better off buying their stock then putting your hard-earned savings with them. But, I digress. The CD rates for large banks such as World Savings, Bank of America, Citibank, etc. are low because they have such a large base of low interest deposits such as savings accounts and checking accounts.
Banks' profits are derived primarily from two sources. First, is fee income (checking account, ATM, call center fees, etc.). The second source is the spread they make on the difference between the savings and CD rates they pay on deposits and the rates you pay for your loans through them. This isn't a perfect example, but if the average rate they pay for their combined deposits is 3.0% and the average loan rate is 6.0%, they are making a 300 Basis Point spread. On hundreds of millions in loans, that is a lot of clams.
If you compare CD rates across the country, the best rates are around 5.40% for 1Y. If the big banks had to pay that for all of their deposits, they would only be making 60 Basis Points. They just can't survive on that kind of a rate margin (or so they tell us).
So compare the CD rates that World Savings, Bank of America, and Citibank are offering with other banks across the country. Our site makes this easy. Please visit our Compare CD Rates page.
Also, don't forget to compare credit union CD rates. They often have higher CD rates then banks. The reasons though for that will be in a forth-coming article. Please view our Certificate of Deposit rates Page.
by Chris Duncan
Bonds Can Be As Risky As Stocks
If you are new to investing perhaps you are not familiar with bonds. Before you get started, you need to understand some of the risks associated with bond investing. Most people assume that all interest-bearing securities are completely risk free, but this is not the case. Even if you know a lot about investing, you may not be aware of some of the risk characteristics associated with bonds.
The most important thing to take into account is the interest rate. The Federal Reserve (also known as the Fed) meets every 6-8 weeks to evaluate the health of the economy. At each meeting, the Fed renders a decision regarding interest rates.
If inflation is rising, the Fed will need to raise interest rates to tighten the money supply. If inflation is moderate or contained, the Fed will likely leave rates unchanged. However, if the economy is slowing down and there is very little inflation or maybe even deflation, then the Fed might decide to reduce interest rates to create a stimulus for economic growth.
The reason why you need to consider present and future interest rate levels is because as interest rates increase, bond prices go down, and vice versa. If you are able to hold your bond until maturity, then interest rate movements do not really matter, because you will redeem the principal upon redemption. But often, investors have to cash out their bonds well before the maturity date. If interest rates have moved up since you purchased the bond, and you sell it prior to maturity, then the bond will be worth less than your initial investment.
You should also be aware of the claim status of the bond you are buying. Claim status refers to your ability to liquidate your investment in the event the bond issuer goes bankrupt. If you are buying a government bond, such as a Treasury Bill, claim status is irrelevant, because the odds of the Federal Government going bankrupt are slim and none.
If you are buying a corporate bond, however, there is always a chance that the issuer could go out of business. In the event of liquidation, bondholders are given priority over stockholders. However, there are often different classes of bondholders. Senior note holders can often claim against certain kinds of physical collateral in the event of bankruptcy, such as equipment (computers, machines, etc.). Regular bondholders can not always claim against physically collateral, and are next in line after the senior note holders.
Next, you should always check the three main features of the bond you are buying; the coupon rate, the maturity date, and the call provisions. The coupon rate is the interest rate. Most bonds pay an interest rate semiannually or annually.
The maturity date is the date that the bond will be redeemed by the issuer; simply put, the maturity date is when the company must pay back to you the principal you loaned to them. The call provisions are the rights of the issuer to buy back your bond prior to maturity. Some bonds are non-callable, while others are callable, meaning that the company can buy your bond back before maturity, usually at a higher price than what you paid.
Finally, you should also understand that if economic conditions become more favorable after you a buy a bond, and interest rates start to go down again, the issuer will likely issue a lot more bonds to take advantage of the low interest rates, and will use the proceeds to try to buy back any callable bonds it issued previously. So, when interest rates go down, there is an increasing likelihood that your bond will be redeemed prior to maturity, if in fact the bond is callable.
You should invest in bonds. However, you should also take into account the risk factors we have covered. Your portfolio should contain a mix of corporate, federal, municipal, and even junk bonds (there is always a default risk associated with junk bonds, but they pay a huge interest rate). Talk to your broker about diversifying the kinds of bonds in your portfolio and you will reduce your overall risk and maximize your return.
by Jim Pretin
The most important thing to take into account is the interest rate. The Federal Reserve (also known as the Fed) meets every 6-8 weeks to evaluate the health of the economy. At each meeting, the Fed renders a decision regarding interest rates.
If inflation is rising, the Fed will need to raise interest rates to tighten the money supply. If inflation is moderate or contained, the Fed will likely leave rates unchanged. However, if the economy is slowing down and there is very little inflation or maybe even deflation, then the Fed might decide to reduce interest rates to create a stimulus for economic growth.
The reason why you need to consider present and future interest rate levels is because as interest rates increase, bond prices go down, and vice versa. If you are able to hold your bond until maturity, then interest rate movements do not really matter, because you will redeem the principal upon redemption. But often, investors have to cash out their bonds well before the maturity date. If interest rates have moved up since you purchased the bond, and you sell it prior to maturity, then the bond will be worth less than your initial investment.
You should also be aware of the claim status of the bond you are buying. Claim status refers to your ability to liquidate your investment in the event the bond issuer goes bankrupt. If you are buying a government bond, such as a Treasury Bill, claim status is irrelevant, because the odds of the Federal Government going bankrupt are slim and none.
If you are buying a corporate bond, however, there is always a chance that the issuer could go out of business. In the event of liquidation, bondholders are given priority over stockholders. However, there are often different classes of bondholders. Senior note holders can often claim against certain kinds of physical collateral in the event of bankruptcy, such as equipment (computers, machines, etc.). Regular bondholders can not always claim against physically collateral, and are next in line after the senior note holders.
Next, you should always check the three main features of the bond you are buying; the coupon rate, the maturity date, and the call provisions. The coupon rate is the interest rate. Most bonds pay an interest rate semiannually or annually.
The maturity date is the date that the bond will be redeemed by the issuer; simply put, the maturity date is when the company must pay back to you the principal you loaned to them. The call provisions are the rights of the issuer to buy back your bond prior to maturity. Some bonds are non-callable, while others are callable, meaning that the company can buy your bond back before maturity, usually at a higher price than what you paid.
Finally, you should also understand that if economic conditions become more favorable after you a buy a bond, and interest rates start to go down again, the issuer will likely issue a lot more bonds to take advantage of the low interest rates, and will use the proceeds to try to buy back any callable bonds it issued previously. So, when interest rates go down, there is an increasing likelihood that your bond will be redeemed prior to maturity, if in fact the bond is callable.
You should invest in bonds. However, you should also take into account the risk factors we have covered. Your portfolio should contain a mix of corporate, federal, municipal, and even junk bonds (there is always a default risk associated with junk bonds, but they pay a huge interest rate). Talk to your broker about diversifying the kinds of bonds in your portfolio and you will reduce your overall risk and maximize your return.
by Jim Pretin
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